Assessment of Goals on Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors for 2016

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: The setting of public health targets should use a strict scientific procedure which includes all the epidemiological evidence available. OBJECTIVES: To project the evolution of non-communicable disease risk factors and the potential impact of different population-based interventions. METHODS: The STELLA® software was used to project the risk factor prevalence both without interventions and with the possible effect of different interventions. RESULTS: According to the estimates for 2016, the rates of smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, obesity and physical inactivity will be 24.9%, 35.7%, 31.1%, 11.7%, 22.8% and 65.0% respectively if the current trend is not changed. However, if population-based interventions were implemented, these rates could be reduced to 22.1%, 31.7%, 27.6%, 10.6%, 20.2%, and 60.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although a higher risk factor prevalence is expected to occur, the implementation of population-based interventions could decrease the burden of non-communicable diseases in Argentina.