Parámetros esenciales para utilizar en modelos epidemiológicos de COVID-19 en Argentina: una revisión rápida

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Simulation models for COVID-19 require a set of epidemiological parameters that vary according to regional
issues and the timing of the pandemic. OBJECTIVE: This rapid review presents the essential epidemiological parameters potentially usable in Argentina. METHODS: A search of the main databases and search engines for articles in preprint status  (preprints) of parameters related to the spread of the virus and evolution of the disease, and the use of the health system was  carried out. A quality assessment tool appropriate to the study design was used to review the selected articles. RESULTS: Of the  variables related to the spread and evolution; the incubation period is 5.8 days (confidence intervals [CI95%]: 4.83-6.85), the  infectious period is 6.25 days (CI95%: 5.09-7.51), the basic reproduction number is 3.32 (CI95%: 3.24-3.39), and the fatality rate in  infected patients was 0.64% (CI95%: 0.5-0.78). Of the variables related to health system use, the length of hospital stay was 5  days (interquartile range [IQR]: 3-9), the length of stay in an intensive care unit (ICU) was 7 days (IQR: 4-11), the percentage of  hospitalized patients requiring ICU was 26% (CI95%: 20-33) and, of these, the percentage requiring mechanical ventilation was 69% (CI95%: 61-75). DISCUSSION: Recent studies and publicly available data at the national level show values different from  those reported in the international literature. The information collected in this work may contribute to inform future modeling and dashboards to predict the dynamics of the epidemic in Argentina.