Mortality Associated to Extreme Cold Events in Argentina, 2005-2015

Authors

  • Francisco Chesini Secretaría de Gobierno de Salud de la Nación, Universidad Metropolitana para la Educación y el Trabajo, Argentina
  • Rosana Abrutzky Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • Natalia Herrera Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Argentina
  • María de los Milagros Skansi Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Argentina.
  • Silvia Fontán Universidad Nacional de La Matanza, Argentina.
  • Elida Gonzalez Morinigo Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Argentina.
  • Francisco Savoy Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos, Argentina
  • Ernesto De Titto Universidad ISALUD, Argentina

Keywords:

Cold Temperature, Extreme Cold, Mortality, Climate Change, Argentina

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Mortality is associated with daily temperatures and extreme cold events. This study aimed to analyze the effects of low temperatures on mortality in the main urban areas of Argentina during 2005-2015. METHODS: A time-series study with generalized additive models was conducted, modeling the relationship between low temperatures and mortality for 21 cities in Argentina between 2005 and 2015. Total mortality was analyzed as well as mortality by sex, age and cause of death, considering cold days, cold spells and delays of 7 and 14 days after those events. RESULTS: Within a 7-day lag, the risk of death increases for a cold day in half of the cities analyzed between 1.04 [CI95%: 1.00-1.08] and 1.14 [CI95%: 1.06-1.23]. The most vulnerable group was people aged 65 or more years, with increases of up to 1.20 [CI95%: 1.05-1.39]. Cold spells are associated with an increased risk within the subsequent 7 days in 8 cities (1.05 [CI95%: 1.03-1.08] to 1.30 [CI95%: 1.03-1.65]), which increases to 10 cities for the 14-day lag, with slightly lower values. CONCLUSIONS: With differences in magnitude and statistical robustness by cities, the population of most urban areas presents an increased risk of death within 7 and 14 days after an event of extreme cold

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Published

27-12-2019

How to Cite

Chesini, F. ., Abrutzky, R., Herrera , N. ., Skansi, M. de los M. ., Fontán, S., Gonzalez Morinigo , E., … De Titto, E. . (2019). Mortality Associated to Extreme Cold Events in Argentina, 2005-2015. Revista Argentina De Salud Pública, 10(41), 28–36. Retrieved from https://rasp.msal.gov.ar/index.php/rasp/article/view/104